The Federal Reserve left the door open for further interest rate cuts, and China has enacted cuts of its own. Bitcoin experts are bullish towards the future, but some uncertainty remains.
The next few weeks will be critical for Bitcoin’s growth.
Rate Cuts Worldwide
Officials from the Federal Reserve are open to further rate cuts. The first round of cuts does not appear to have many outright political opponents, leaving the door wide open for more. As Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve of Minneapolis, put it:
“Even after the 50 basis-point cut, I believe the overall stance of monetary policy remains tight. I was comfortable taking a larger first step, and then as we go forward, I expect, on balance, we will probably take smaller steps,” he claimed.
The US is not the only major world player to take similar steps. On Monday, China also implemented rate cuts alongside several other measures, such as injecting over $10 billion in liquidity into its central bank. In other words, the economic fallout from US rate cuts is not localized, and the market conditions may only intensify.
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Impact on Bitcoin
For some, this is a concerning possibility. Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni, for example, was extremely bearish. In an interview, he warned of an “outright melt-up” in the stock market, claiming that there is a slim but non-negligible chance of an economic downturn.
He predicted a roughly 80% chance of a bull market and a 20% chance of downturns. Bitcoin’s own experts are overall more bullish, but some slight reservations do remain.
“Let the good times roll,” Arthur Hayes claimed in an X post, noting that Bitcoin’s price held up over the weekend. This goes against his earlier skepticism that Bitcoin might not profit from cuts. A series of other experts expressed similar bullish sentiments in exclusive interviews with BeInCrypto, albeit with a few caveats.
For example, Harsh Agarwal, Investment Lead at Cypher Capital, noted that “Bitcoin stands to generate $145 billion in gains if it reaches $68,000”. Several bullish factors are aligned, he claimed, but that’s not a guarantee of success. Mithril Thakore, CEO & Co-founder of Velar, described these dynamics further:
“The Fed’s interest rate cut on September 18 appears to have shaken the crypto market from its stupor and given BTC the much-needed catalyst to think about retesting former highs. Before it can get there, though, $64,000 has proven to be a key resistance zone and it remains to be seen whether BTC can convincingly break through this barrier,” claimed Thakore.
In other words, there are plenty of bullish signs, but that doesn’t mean a bull market is absolute. The most critical period for Bitcoin is in the next few weeks, especially now that China has made its own cuts. Jonathan Hargreaves, Global Head of Business Development & ESG at Elastos, told BeInCrypto that this market is unique and may not match up with past cycles.
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“Importantly, the broader economy will be more interconnected with these developments, particularly regarding interest rate cuts and critical regulatory decisions in the US, India and China related to crypto governance. Choices such as aggressive interest rate cuts, taxation policy, and market access in China will significantly impact the peak and duration of this bull run”, Hargreaves told BeInCrypto.
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